Emilia Cheladze

Article series: 5 Clean Coding Tips – 5.Put yourself in somebody else’s shoes

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This is the fifth of the article series “5 tips for clean coding” to follow as soon as you’ve made the first steps into your coding career, in this article series. Read the introduction here, to find out why it is important to write clean code if you missed it.

It might be a bit repetitive to bring up how important the readability of the code is, let’s do it anyway. In the majority of the cases you are writing for others, therefore you need to put yourself in their shoes to be able to assess how good the readability of your code is. For you, it all might be obvious because you wrote it. But it doesn’t have to be easy to read for someone else. If you have a colleague or a friend that has a bit of time for you and is willing to give you feedback, that is great. If, however, you don’t have such a person, having a few imaginary friends might be helpful in this case. It might sound crazy, but don’t close this page just yet. Having a set of imaginary personas at your disposal, to review your work with their eyes, can help you a lot. Imagine that your code met one of those guys. What would they say about it? If you work in a team or collaborate with people, you probably don’t have to imagine them. You’ve met them.

The_PEP8_guy – He has years of experience. He is used to seeing the code in a very particular way. He quotes the style guide during lunch. His fingers make the perfect line splitting and indentation without even his thoughts reaching the conscious state. He knows that lowercase_with_underscore is for variables, UPPER_CASE_NAMES are for constants and the CapitalizedWords are for classes. He will be lost if you do it in any different way. His expectations will not meet what you wrote, and he will not understand anything, because he will be too distracted by the messed up visual. Depending on the character he might start either crying or shouting. Read the style guide and follow it. You might be able to please this guy at least a little bit with the automatic tools like pylint.

The_ grieving _widow – Imagine that something happens to you. Let’s say, that you get hit by a bus[i]. You leave behind sadness and the_ grieving_widow to manage your code, your legacy. Will the future generations be able to make use of it or were you the only one who can understand anything you wrote? That is a bit of an extreme situation, ok. Alternatively, imagine, that you go for a 5-week vacation to a silent retreat with a strict no-phone policy (or that is what you tell your colleagues). Will they be able to carry on if they cannot ask you anything about the code? Review your code and the documentation from the perspective of the poor grieving_widow.

The_not_your_domain_guy – He is from the outside of the world you are currently in and he just does not understand your jargon. He doesn’t have to know that in data science a feature, a predictor and an x probably mean the same thing. SNR might shout signal-to-noise ratio at you, it will only snort at him. You might use abbreviations that are obvious to you but not to everyone. If you think that the majority of people can understand, and it helps with the code readability keep the abbreviations but just in case, document/comment them. There might be abbreviations specific to your company and, someone from the outside, a new guy, a consultant will not get them. Put yourself in the shoes of that guy and maybe make your code a bit more democratic wherever possible.

The_foreigner– You might be working in an environment, where every single person speaks the same language you speak, and it happens not to be English. So, you and your colleagues name variables and write the comments in your language. However, unless you work in a team with rules a strict as Athletic Bilbao, there might be a foreigner joining your team in the future. It is hard to argue that English is the lingua franca in programming (and in the world), these days. So, it might be worth putting yourself in the_foreigner’s shoes, while writing your code, to avoid a huge amount of work in the future, that the translation and explanation will require. And even if you are working on your own, you might want to make your code public one day and want as many people as possible to read it.

The_hurry_up_guy – we all know this guy. Sometimes he doesn’t have a body or a face, but we can feel his presence. You might want to write a perfect solution, comment it in the best possible way and maybe add a bit of glitter on top but sometimes you just need to give in and do it his way. And that’s ok too.

References:

[i] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bus_factor

Emilia Cheladze

Article series: 5 Clean Coding Tips – 4. Stop commenting the obvious

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This is the fourth of the article series “5 tips for clean coding” to follow as soon as you’ve made the first steps into your coding career, in this article series. Read the introduction here, to find out why it is important to write clean code if you missed it.

Everyone will tell you that you need to comment your code. You do it for yourself, for others, it might help you to put down a structure of your code before you get down to coding properly. Writing a lot of comments might give you a false sense of confidence, that you are doing a good job. While in reality, you are commenting your code a lot with obvious, redundant statements that are not bringing any value. The role of a comment it to explain, not to describe. You need to realize that any piece of comment has to add information to the code you already have, not to double it.

Keep in mind, you are not narrating the code, adding ‘subtitles’ to python’s performance. The comments are there to clarify what is not explicit in the code itself. Adding a comment saying what the line of code does is completely redundant most of the time:

# importing pandas
import pandas as pd

# loading the data
csv_file = csv.reader(open'data.csv’)

# creating an empty data frame
data = pd.DataFrame()

A good rule of thumb would be: if it starts to sound like an instastory, rethink it. ‘So, I am having my breakfast, with a chai latte and my friend, the cat is here as well’. No.

It is also a good thing to learn to always update necessary comments before you modify the code. It is incredibly easy to modify a line of code, move on and forget the comment. There are people who claim that there are very few crimes in the world worse than comments that contradict the code itself.

Of course, there are situations, where you might be preparing a tutorial for others and you want to narrate what the code is doing. Then writing that load function will load the data is good. It does not have to be obvious for the listener. When teaching, repetitions, and overly explicit explanations are more than welcome. Always have in mind who your reader will be.

Emilia Cheladze

Article series: 5 Clean Coding Tips – 3. Take Advantage of the Formatting Tools.

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This is the third of the article series “5 tips for clean coding” to follow as soon as you’ve made the first steps into your coding career, in this article series. Read the introduction here, to find out why it is important to write clean code if you missed it.

Unfortunately, no automatic formatting tool will correct the logic in your code, suggest meaningful names of your variables or comment the code for you. Yet. Gmail has lately started suggesting email titles based on email content. AI-powered variable naming can be next, who knows. Anyway, the visual level of the code is much easier to correct and there are tools that will do some of the code formatting on the visual level job for you. Some of them might be already existing in your IDE, you just need to look for them a bit, others need to be installed. One of the most popular formatting tools is pylint[i]. It is worth checking it out and learning to use it in an efficient way.

Beware that as convenient as it may seem to copy and paste your code into a quick online ‘beautifier’ it is not always a good idea. The online tools might store your code. If you are working on something that shouldn’t just freely float in the world wide web, stick to reliable tools like pylint, that will store the data within your working directory.

These tools can become very good friends of yours but also very annoying ones. They will not miss single whitespace and will not keep their mouth shut when your line length jumps from 79 to 80 characters. They will be shouting with an underscoring of some worrying color and/or exclamation marks. You will need to find your way to coexist and retain your sanity. It can be very distracting when you are in a working flow and warnings pop up all the time about formatting details that have nothing to do with what you are trying to solve. Sometimes, it might be better to turn those warnings off while you are in your most concentrated/creative phase of writing and turn them back on while the dust of your genius settles down a little bit. Usually the offer a lot of flexibility, regarding which warnings you want to be ignored and other features. The good thing is, they also teach you what are mistakes that you are making and after some time you will just stop making them in the first place.

References:

[i] https://www.pylint.org/

Emilia Cheladze

Article series: 5 Clean Coding Tips – 2. Name Variables in a Meaningful Way

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This is the second of the article series “5 tips for clean coding” to follow as soon as you’ve made the first steps into your coding career, in this article series. Read the introduction here, to find out why it is important to write clean code if you missed it.

When it comes to naming variables, there are a few official rules in the PEP8 style guide. A variable must start with an underscore or a letter and can be followed by a number of underscores or letters or digits. They cannot be reserved words: True, False, or, not, lambda etc. The preferred naming style is lowercase or lowercase_with_underscore. This all refers to variable names on a visual level. However, for readability purposes, the semantic level is as important, or maybe even more so. If it was for python, the variables could be named like this:

b_a327647_3 = DataFrame() 
hw_abc7622 = DataFrame()  
a10001_kkl = DataFrame()

It wouldn’t make the slightest difference. But again, the code is not only for the interpreter to be read. It is for humans. Other people might need to look at your code to understand what you did, to be able to continue the work that you have already started. In any case, they need to be able to decipher what hides behind the variable names, that you’ve given the objects in your code. They will need to remember what they meant as they reappear in the code. And it might not be easy for them.

Remembering names is not an easy thing to do in all life situations. Let’s consider the following situation. You go to a party, there is a bunch of new people that you meet for the first time. They all have names and you try very hard to remember them all. Imagine how much easier would it be if you could call the new girl who came with John as the_girl_who_came_with_John. How much easier would it be to gossip to your friends about her? ‘Camilla is on the 5th glass of wine tonight, isn’t she?!.’ ‘Who are you talking about???’ Your friends might ask. ‘The_Girl_who_came_with_John.’ And they will all know. ‘It was nice to meet you girl_who_came_with_john, see you around.’ The good thing is that variables are not really like people. You can be a bit rude to them, they will not mind. You don’t have to force yourself or anyone else to remember an arbitrary name of a variable, that accidentally came to your mind in the moment of creation. Let your colleagues figure out what is what by a meaningful, straightforward description of it.

There is an important tradeoff to be aware of here. The lines of code should not exceed a certain length (79 characters, according to the PEP 8), therefore, it is recommended that you keep your names as short as possible. It is worth to give it a bit of thought about how you can name your variable in the most descriptive way, keeping it as short as possible. Keep in mind, that
the_blond_girl_in_a_dark_blue_dress_who_came_with_John_to_this_party might not be the best choice.

There are a few additional pieces of advice when it comes to naming your variables. First, try to always use pronounceable names. If you’ve ever been to an international party, you will know how much harder to remember is something that you cannot even repeat. Second, you probably have been taught over and over again that whenever you create a loop, you use i and j to denote the iterators.

for i in m:
    for j in n:

It is probably engraved deep into the folds in your brain to write for i in…. You need to try and scrape it out of your cortex. Think about what the i stands for, what it really does and name it accordingly. Is i maybe the row_index? Is it a list_element?

for element in list_of_words:
    for letter in word:

Additionally, think about when to use a noun and where a verb. Variables usually are things and functions usually do things. So, it might be better to name functions with verb expressions, for example: get_id() or raise_to_power().

Moreover, it is a good practice to name constant numbers in the code. First, because when you name them you explain the meaning of the number. Second, because maybe one day you will have to change that number. If it appears multiple times in your code, you will avoid searching and changing it in every place. PEP 8 states that the constants should be named with UPPER_CASE_NAME. It is also quite common practice to explain the meaning of the constants with an inline comment at the end of the line, where the number appears. However, this approach will increase the line length and will require repeating the comment if the number appears more than one time in the code.

Emilia Cheladze

Matrix search: Finding the blocks of neighboring fields in a matrix with Python

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Task

In this article we will look at a solution in python to the following grid search task:

Find the biggest block of adjoining elements of the same kind and into how many blocks the matrix is divided. As adjoining blocks, we will consider field touching by the sides and not the corners.

Input data

For the ease of the explanation, we will be looking at a simple 3×4 matrix with elements of three different kinds, 0, 1 and 2 (see above). To test the code, we will simulate data to achieve different matrix sizes and a varied number of element types. It will also allow testing edge cases like, where all elements are the same or all elements are different.

To simulate some test data for later, we can use the numpy randint() method:

import numpy as np
matrix = [[0,0,1,1], [0,1,2,2], [0,1,1,2]]

matrix_test1 = np.random.randint(3, size = (5,5))
matrix_test2 = np.random.randint(5, size = (10,15))

The code

def find_blocks(matrix):
    visited = []
    block_list = []     
    for x in range(len(matrix)):
        for y in range(len(matrix[0])):
            if (x, y) not in visited:
                field_count, visited = explore_block(x, y, visited)
                block_list.append(field_count)                 
    return print('biggest block: {0}, number of blocks: {1}'
                 .format(max(block_list), len(block_list)))

def explore_block(x, y, visited):
    queue = {(x,y)}
    field_count = 1
    while queue:  
        x,y = queue.pop()
        visited.append((x,y))
        if x+1<len(matrix) and (x+1,y) not in visited and (x+1,y) not in queue:
            if matrix[x+1][y] == matrix[x][y]:
                field_count += 1
                queue.add((x+1,y))         
        if x-1>=0 and (x-1,y) not in visited and (x-1,y) not in queue:
            if matrix[x-1][y] == matrix[x][y]:
                field_count += 1
                queue.add((x-1,y))                    
        if y-1>=0 and (x,y-1) not in visited and (x,y-1) not in queue:
            if matrix[x][y-1] == matrix[x][y]:
                field_count += 1
                queue.add((x,y-1))                    
        if y+1<len(matrix[0]) and (x,y+1) not in visited and (x,y+1) not in queue:
            if matrix[x][y+1] == matrix[x][y]:
                field_count += 1
                queue.add((x,y+1))                                              
    return field_count, visited

How the code works

In summary, the algorithm loops through all fields of the matrix looking for unseen fields that will serve as a starting point for a local exploration of each block of color – the find_blocks() function. The local exploration is done by looking at the neighboring fields and if they are within the same kind, moving to them to explore further fields – the explore_block() function. The fields that have already been seen and counted are stored in the visited list.

find_blocks() function:

  1. Finds a starting point of a new block
  2. Runs a the explore_block() function for local exploration of the block
  3. Appends the size of the explored block
  4. Updates the list of visited points
  5. Returns the result, once all fields of the matrix have been visited.

explore_block() function:

  1. Takes the coordinates of the starting field for a new block and the list of visited points
  2. Creates the queue set with the starting point
  3. Sets the size of the current block (field_count) to 1
  4. Starts a while loop that is executed for as long as the queue is not empty
    1. Takes an element of the queue and uses its coordinates as the current location for further exploration
    2. Adds the current field to the visited list
    3. Explores the neighboring fields and if they belong to the same block, they are added to the queue
    4. The fields are taken off the queue for further exploration one by one until the queue is empty
  5. Returns the field_count of the explored block and the updated list of visited fields

Execute the function

find_blocks(matrix)

The returned result is biggest block: 4, number of blocks: 4.

Run the test matrices:

find_blocks(matrix_test1)
find_blocks(matrix_test2)

Visualization

The matrices for the article were visualized with the seaborn heatmap() method.

import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# use annot=False for a matrix without the number labels
sns.heatmap(matrix, annot=True, center = 0, linewidths=.5, cmap = "viridis",
            xticklabels=False, yticklabels=False, cbar=False, square=True)
plt.show()
Aakash Chugh

Introduction to Recommendation Engines

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This is the second article of article series Getting started with the top eCommerce use cases. If you are interested in reading the first article you can find it here.

What are Recommendation Engines?

Recommendation engines are the automated systems which helps select out similar things whenever a user selects something online. Be it Netflix, Amazon, Spotify, Facebook or YouTube etc. All of these companies are now using some sort of recommendation engine to improve their user experience. A recommendation engine not only helps to predict if a user prefers an item or not but also helps to increase sales, ,helps to understand customer behavior, increase number of registered users and helps a user to do better time management. For instance Netflix will suggest what movie you would want to watch or Amazon will suggest what kind of other products you might want to buy. All the mentioned platforms operates using the same basic algorithm in the background and in this article we are going to discuss the idea behind it.

What are the techniques?

There are two fundamental algorithms that comes into play when there’s a need to generate recommendations. In next section these techniques are discussed in detail.

Content-Based Filtering

The idea behind content based filtering is to analyse a set of features which will provide a similarity between items themselves i.e. between two movies, two products or two songs etc. These set of features once compared gives a similarity score at the end which can be used as a reference for the recommendations.

There are several steps involved to get to this similarity score and the first step is to construct a profile for each item by representing some of the important features of that item. In other terms, this steps requires to define a set of characteristics that are discovered easily. For instance, consider that there’s an article which a user has already read and once you know that this user likes this article you may want to show him recommendations of similar articles. Now, using content based filtering technique you could find the similar articles. The easiest way to do that is to set some features for this article like publisher, genre, author etc. Based on these features similar articles can be recommended to the user (as illustrated in Figure 1). There are three main similarity measures one could use to find the similar articles mentioned below.

 

Figure 1: Content-Based Filtering

 

 

Minkowski distance

Minkowski distance between two variables can be calculated as:

(x,y)= (\sum_{i=1}^{n}{|X_{i} - Y_{i}|^{p}})^{1/p}

 

Cosine Similarity

Cosine similarity between two variables can be calculated as :

\mbox{Cosine Similarity} = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}{x_{i} y_{i}}} {\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n}{x_{i}^{2}}} \sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n}{y_{i}^{2}}}} \

 

Jaccard Similarity

 

J(X,Y) = |X ∩ Y| / |X ∪ Y|

 

These measures can be used to create a matrix which will give you the similarity between each movie and then a function can be defined to return the top 10 similar articles.

 

Collaborative filtering

This filtering method focuses on finding how similar two users or two products are by analyzing user behavior or preferences rather than focusing on the content of the items. For instance consider that there are three users A,B and C.  We want to recommend some movies to user A, our first approach would be to find similar users and compare which movies user A has not yet watched and recommend those movies to user A.  This approach where we try to find similar users is called as User-User Collaborative Filtering.  

The other approach that could be used here is when you try to find similar movies based on the ratings given by others, this type is called as Item-Item Collaborative Filtering. The research shows that item-item collaborative filtering works better than user-user collaborative filtering as user behavior is really dynamic and changes over time. Also, there are a lot more users and increasing everyday but on the other side item characteristics remains the same. To calculate the similarities we can use Cosine distance.

 

Figure 2: Collaborative Filtering

 

Recently some companies have started to take advantage of both content based and collaborative filtering techniques to make a hybrid recommendation engine. The results from both models are combined into one hybrid model which provides more accurate recommendations. Five steps are involved to make a recommendation engine work which are collection of data, storing of data, analyzing the data, filtering the data and providing recommendations. There are a lot of attributes that are involved in order to collect user data including browsing history, page views, search logs, order history, marketing channel touch points etc. which requires a strong data architecture.  The collection of data is pretty straightforward but it can be overwhelming to analyze this amount of data. Storing this data could get tricky on the other hand as you need a scalable database for this kind of data. With the rise of graph databases this area is also improving for many use cases including recommendation engines. Graph databases like Neo4j can also help to analyze and find similar users and relationship among them. Analyzing the data can be carried in different ways, depending on how strong and scalable your architecture you can run real time, batch or near real time analysis. The fourth step involves the filtering of the data and here you can use any of the above mentioned approach to find similarities to finally provide the recommendations.

Having a good recommendation engine can be time consuming initially but it is definitely beneficial in the longer run. It not only helps to generate revenue but also helps to to improve your product catalog and customer service.

Deep Moteria

Python vs R: Which Language to Choose for Deep Learning?

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Data science is increasingly becoming essential for every business to operate efficiently in this modern world. This influences the processes composed together to obtain the required outputs for clients. While machine learning and deep learning sit at the core of data science, the concepts of deep learning become essential to understand as it can help increase the accuracy of final outputs. And when it comes to data science, R and Python are the most popular programming languages used to instruct the machines.

Python and R: Primary Languages Used for Deep Learning

Deep learning and machine learning differentiate based on the input data type they use. While machine learning depends upon the structured data, deep learning uses neural networks to store and process the data during the learning. Deep learning can be described as the subset of machine learning, where the data to be processed is defined in another structure than a normal one.

R is developed specifically to support the concepts and implementation of data science and hence, the support provided by this language is incredible as writing codes become much easier with its simple syntax.

Python is already much popular programming language that can serve more than one development niche without straining even for a bit. The implementation of Python for programming machine learning algorithms is very much popular and the results provided are accurate and faster than any other language. (C or Java). And because of its extended support for data science concept implementation, it becomes a tough competitor for R.

However, if we compare the charts of popularity, Python is obviously more popular among data scientists and developers because of its versatility and easier usage during algorithm implementation. However, R outruns Python when it comes to the packages offered to developers specifically expertise in R over Python. Therefore, to conclude which one of them is the best, let’s take an overview of the features and limits offered by both languages.

Python

Python was first introduced by Guido Van Rossum who developed it as the successor of ABC programming language. Python puts white space at the center while increasing the readability of the developed code. It is a general-purpose programming language that simply extends support for various development needs.

The packages of Python includes support for web development, software development, GUI (Graphical User Interface) development and machine learning also. Using these packages and putting the best development skills forward, excellent solutions can be developed. According to Stackoverflow, Python ranks at the fourth position as the most popular programming language among developers.

Benefits for performing enhanced deep learning using Python are:

  • Concise and Readable Code
  • Extended Support from Large Community of Developers
  • Open-source Programming Language
  • Encourages Collaborative Coding
  • Suitable for small and large-scale products

The latest and stable version of Python has been released as Python 3.8.0 on 14th October 2019. Developing a software solution using Python becomes much easier as the extended support offered through the packages drives better development and answers every need.

R

R is a language specifically used for the development of statistical software and for statistical data analysis. The primary user base of R contains statisticians and data scientists who are analyzing data. Supported by R Foundation for statistical computing, this language is not suitable for the development of websites or applications. R is also an open-source environment that can be used for mining excessive and large amounts of data.

R programming language focuses on the output generation but not the speed. The execution speed of programs written in R is comparatively lesser as producing required outputs is the aim not the speed of the process. To use R in any development or mining tasks, it is required to install its operating system specific binary version before coding to run the program directly into the command line.

R also has its own development environment designed and named RStudio. R also involves several libraries that help in crafting efficient programs to execute mining tasks on the provided data.

The benefits offered by R are pretty common and similar to what Python has to offer:

  • Open-source programming language
  • Supports all operating systems
  • Supports extensions
  • R can be integrated with many of the languages
  • Extended Support for Visual Data Mining

Although R ranks at the 17th position in Stackoverflow’s most popular programming language list, the support offered by this language has no match. After all, the R language is developed by statisticians for statisticians!

Python vs R: Should They be Really Compared?

Even when provided with the best technical support and efficient tools, a developer will not be able to provide quality outputs if he/she doesn’t possess the required skills. The point here is, technical skills rank higher than the resources provided. A comparison of these two programming languages is not advisable as they both hold their own set of advantages. However, the developers considering to use both together are less but they obtain maximum benefit from the process.

Both these languages have some features in common. For example, if a representative comes asking you if you lend technical support for developing an uber clone, you are directly going to decline as Python and R both do not support mobile app development. To benefit the most and develop excellent solutions using both these programming languages, it is advisable to stop comparing and start collaborating!

R and Python: How to Fit Both In a Single Program

Anticipating the future needs of the development industry, there has been a significant development to combine these both excellent programming languages into one. Now, there are two approaches to performing this: either we include R script into Python code or vice versa.

Using the available interfaces, packages and extended support from Python we can include R script into the code and enhance the productivity of Python code. Availability of PypeR, pyRserve and more resources helps run these two programming languages efficiently while efficiently performing the background work.

Either way, using the developed functions and packages made available for integrating Python in R are also effective at providing better results. Available R packages like rJython, rPython, reticulate, PythonInR and more, integrating Python into R language is very easy.

Therefore, using the development skills at their best and maximizing the use of such amazing resources, Python and R can be togetherly used to enhance end results and provide accurate deep learning support.

Conclusion

Python and R both are great in their own names and own places. However, because of the wide applications of Python in almost every operation, the annual packages offered to Python developers are less than the developers skilled in using R. However, this doesn’t justify the usability of R. The ultimate decision of choosing between these two languages depends upon the data scientists or developers and their mining requirements.

And if a developer or data scientist decides to develop skills for both- Python and R-based development, it turns out to be beneficial in the near future. Choosing any one or both to use in your project depends on the project requirements and expert support on hand.

Aakash Chugh

Multi-touch attribution: A data-driven approach

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Customers shopping behavior has changed drastically when it comes to online shopping, as nowadays, customer likes to do a thorough market research about a product before making a purchase.

What is Multi-touch attribution?

This makes it really hard for marketers to correctly determine the contribution for each marketing channel to which a customer was exposed to. The path a customer takes from his first search to the purchase is known as a Customer Journey and this path consists of multiple marketing channels or touchpoints. Therefore, it is highly important to distribute the budget between these channels to maximize return. This problem is known as multi-touch attribution problem and the right attribution model helps to steer the marketing budget efficiently. Multi-touch attribution problem is well known among marketers. You might be thinking that if this is a well known problem then there must be an algorithm out there to deal with this. Well, there are some traditional models  but every model has its own limitation which will be discussed in the next section.

Types of attribution models

Most of the eCommerce companies have a performance marketing department to make sure that the marketing budget is spent in an agile way. There are multiple heuristics attribution models pre-existing in google analytics however there are several issues with each one of them. These models are:

Traditional attribution models

First touch attribution model

100% credit is given to the first channel as it is considered that the first marketing channel was responsible for the purchase.

Figure 1: First touch attribution model

Last touch attribution model

100% credit is given to the last channel as it is considered that the first marketing channel was responsible for the purchase.

Figure 2: Last touch attribution model

Linear-touch attribution model

In this attribution model, equal credit is given to all the marketing channels present in customer journey as it is considered that each channel is equally responsible for the purchase.

Figure 3: Linear attribution model

U-shaped or Bath tub attribution model

This is most common in eCommerce companies, this model assigns 40% to first and last touch and 20% is equally distributed among the rest.

Figure 4: Bathtub or U-shape attribution model

Data driven attribution models

Traditional attribution models follows somewhat a naive approach to assign credit to one or all the marketing channels involved. As it is not so easy for all the companies to take one of these models and implement it. There are a lot of challenges that comes with multi-touch attribution problem like customer journey duration, overestimation of branded channels, vouchers and cross-platform issue, etc.

Switching from traditional models to data-driven models gives us more flexibility and more insights as the major part here is defining some rules to prepare the data that fits your business. These rules can be defined by performing an ad hoc analysis of customer journeys. In the next section, I will discuss about Markov chain concept as an attribution model.

Markov chains

Markov chains concepts revolves around probability. For attribution problem, every customer journey can be seen as a chain(set of marketing channels) which will compute a markov graph as illustrated in figure 5. Every channel here is represented as a vertex and the edges represent the probability of hopping from one channel to another. There will be an another detailed article, explaining the concept behind different data-driven attribution models and how to apply them.

Figure 5: Markov chain example

Challenges during the Implementation

Transitioning from a traditional attribution models to a data-driven one, may sound exciting but the implementation is rather challenging as there are several issues which can not be resolved just by changing the type of model. Before its implementation, the marketers should perform a customer journey analysis to gain some insights about their customers and try to find out/perform:

  1. Length of customer journey.
  2. On an average how many branded and non branded channels (distinct and non-distinct) in a typical customer journey?
  3. Identify most upper funnel and lower funnel channels.
  4. Voucher analysis: within branded and non-branded channels.

When you are done with the analysis and able to answer all of the above questions, the next step would be to define some rules in order to handle the user data according to your business needs. Some of the issues during the implementation are discussed below along with their solution.

Customer journey duration

Assuming that you are a retailer, let’s try to understand this issue with an example. In May 2016, your company started a Fb advertising campaign for a particular product category which “attracted” a lot of customers including Chris. He saw your Fb ad while working in the office and clicked on it, which took him to your website. As soon as he registered on your website, his boss called him (probably because he was on Fb while working), he closed everything and went for the meeting. After coming back, he started working and completely forgot about your ad or products. After a few days, he received an email with some offers of your products which also he ignored until he saw an ad again on TV in Jan 2019 (after 3 years). At this moment, he started doing his research about your products and finally bought one of your products from some Instagram campaign. It took Chris almost 3 years to make his first purchase.

Figure 6: Chris journey

Now, take a minute and think, if you analyse the entire journey of customers like Chris, you would realize that you are still assigning some of the credit to the touchpoints that happened 3 years ago. This can be solved by using an attribution window. Figure 6 illustrates that 83% of the customers are making a purchase within 30 days which means the attribution window here could be 30 days. In simple words, it is safe to remove the touchpoints that happens after 30 days of purchase. This parameter can also be changed to 45 days or 60 days, depending on the use case.

Figure 7: Length of customer journey

Removal of direct marketing channel

A well known issue that every marketing analyst is aware of is, customers who are already aware of the brand usually comes to the website directly. This leads to overestimation of direct channel and branded channels start getting more credit. In this case, you can set a threshold (say 7 days) and remove these branded channels from customer journey.

Figure 8: Removal of branded channels

Cross platform problem

If some of your customers are using different devices to explore your products and you are not able to track them then it will make retargeting really difficult. In a perfect world these customers belong to same journey and if these can’t be combined then, except one, other paths would be considered as “non-converting path”. For attribution problem device could be thought of as a touchpoint to include in the path but to be able to track these customers across all devices would still be challenging. A brief introduction to deterministic and probabilistic ways of cross device tracking can be found here.

Figure 9: Cross platform clash

How to account for Vouchers?

To better account for vouchers, it can be added as a ‘dummy’ touchpoint of the type of voucher (CRM,Social media, Affiliate or Pricing etc.) used. In our case, we tried to add these vouchers as first touchpoint and also as a last touchpoint but no significant difference was found. Also, if the marketing channel of which the voucher was used was already in the path, the dummy touchpoint was not added.

Figure 10: Addition of Voucher as a touchpoint

Perry Johnson

A Bird’s Eye View: How Machine Learning Can Help You Charge Your E-Scooters

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Bird scooters in Columbus, Ohio

Bird scooters in Columbus, Ohio

Ever since I started using bike-sharing to get around in Seattle, I have become fascinated with geolocation data and the transportation sharing economy. When I saw this project leveraging the mobility data RESTful API from the Los Angeles Department of Transportation, I was eager to dive in and get my hands dirty building a data product utilizing a company’s mobility data API.

Unfortunately, the major bike and scooter providers (Bird, JUMP, Lime) don’t have publicly accessible APIs. However, some folks have seemingly been able to reverse-engineer the Bird API used to populate the maps in their Android and iOS applications.

One interesting feature of this data is the nest_id, which indicates if the Bird scooter is in a “nest” — a centralized drop-off spot for charged Birds to be released back into circulation.

I set out to ask the following questions:

  1. Can real-time predictions be made to determine if a scooter is currently in a nest?
  2. For non-nest scooters, can new nest location recommendations be generated from geospatial clustering?

To answer these questions, I built a full-stack machine learning web application, NestGenerator, which provides an automated recommendation engine for new nest locations. This application can help power Bird’s internal nest location generation that runs within their Android and iOS applications. NestGenerator also provides real-time strategic insight for Bird chargers who are enticed to optimize their scooter collection and drop-off route based on proximity to scooters and nest locations in their area.

Bird

The electric scooter market has seen substantial growth with Bird’s recent billion dollar valuation  and their $300 million Series C round in the summer of 2018. Bird offers electric scooters that top out at 15 mph, cost $1 to unlock and 15 cents per minute of use. Bird scooters are in over 100 cities globally and they announced in late 2018 that they eclipsed 10 million scooter rides since their launch in 2017.

Bird scooters in Tel Aviv, Israel

Bird scooters in Tel Aviv, Israel

With all of these scooters populating cities, there’s much-needed demand for people to charge them. Since they are electric, someone needs to charge them! A charger can earn additional income for charging the scooters at their home and releasing them back into circulation at nest locations. The base price for charging each Bird is $5.00. It goes up from there when the Birds are harder to capture.

Data Collection and Machine Learning Pipeline

The full data pipeline for building “NestGenerator”

Data

From the details here, I was able to write a Python script that returned a list of Bird scooters within a specified area, their geolocation, unique ID, battery level and a nest ID.

I collected scooter data from four cities (Atlanta, Austin, Santa Monica, and Washington D.C.) across varying times of day over the course of four weeks. Collecting data from different cities was critical to the goal of training a machine learning model that would generalize well across cities.

Once equipped with the scooter’s latitude and longitude coordinates, I was able to leverage additional APIs and municipal data sources to get granular geolocation data to create an original scooter attribute and city feature dataset.

Data Sources:

  • Walk Score API: returns a walk score, transit score and bike score for any location.
  • Google Elevation API: returns elevation data for all locations on the surface of the earth.
  • Google Places API: returns information about places. Places are defined within this API as establishments, geographic locations, or prominent points of interest.
  • Google Reverse Geocoding API: reverse geocoding is the process of converting geographic coordinates into a human-readable address.
  • Weather Company Data: returns the current weather conditions for a geolocation.
  • LocationIQ: Nearby Points of Interest (PoI) API returns specified PoIs or places around a given coordinate.
  • OSMnx: Python package that lets you download spatial geometries and model, project, visualize, and analyze street networks from OpenStreetMap’s APIs.

Feature Engineering

After extensive API wrangling, which included a four-week prolonged data collection phase, I was finally able to put together a diverse feature set to train machine learning models. I engineered 38 features to classify if a scooter is currently in a nest.

Full Feature Set

Full Feature Set

The features boiled down into four categories:

  • Amenity-based: parks within a given radius, gas stations within a given radius, walk score, bike score
  • City Network Structure: intersection count, average circuity, street length average, average streets per node, elevation level
  • Distance-based: proximity to closest highway, primary road, secondary road, residential road
  • Scooter-specific attributes: battery level, proximity to closest scooter, high battery level (> 90%) scooters within a given radius, total scooters within a given radius

 

Log-Scale Transformation

For each feature, I plotted the distribution to explore the data for feature engineering opportunities. For features with a right-skewed distribution, where the mean is typically greater than the median, I applied these log transformations to normalize the distribution and reduce the variability of outlier observations. This approach was used to generate a log feature for proximity to closest scooter, closest highway, primary road, secondary road, and residential road.

An example of a log transformation

Statistical Analysis: A Systematic Approach

Next, I wanted to ensure that the features I included in my model displayed significant differences when broken up by nest classification. My thinking was that any features that did not significantly differ when stratified by nest classification would not have a meaningful predictive impact on whether a scooter was in a nest or not.

Distributions of a feature stratified by their nest classification can be tested for statistically significant differences. I used an unpaired samples t-test with a 0.01% significance level to compute a p-value and confidence interval to determine if there was a statistically significant difference in means for a feature stratified by nest classification. I rejected the null hypothesis if a p-value was smaller than the 0.01% threshold and if the 99.9% confidence interval did not straddle zero. By rejecting the null-hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis, it’s deemed there is a significant difference in means of a feature by nest classification.

Battery Level Distribution Stratified by Nest Classification to run a t-test

Battery Level Distribution Stratified by Nest Classification to run a t-test

Log of Closest Scooter Distribution Stratified by Nest Classification to run a t-test

Throwing Away Features

Using the approach above, I removed ten features that did not display statistically significant results.

Statistically Insignificant Features Removed Before Model Development

Model Development

I trained two models, a random forest classifier and an extreme gradient boosting classifier since tree-based models can handle skewed data, capture important feature interactions, and provide a feature importance calculation. I trained the models on 70% of the data collected for all four cities and reserved the remaining 30% for testing.

After hyper-parameter tuning the models for performance on cross-validation data it was time to run the models on the 30% of test data set aside from the initial data collection.

I also collected additional test data from other cities (Columbus, Fort Lauderdale, San Diego) not involved in training the models. I took this step to ensure the selection of a machine learning model that would generalize well across cities. The performance of each model on the additional test data determined which model would be integrated into the application development.

Performance on Additional Cities Test Data

The Random Forest Classifier displayed superior performance across the board

The Random Forest Classifier displayed superior performance across the board

I opted to move forward with the random forest model because of its superior performance on AUC score and accuracy metrics on the additional cities test data. AUC is the Area under the ROC Curve, and it provides an aggregate measure of model performance across all possible classification thresholds.

AUC Score on Test Data for each Model

AUC Score on Test Data for each Model

Feature Importance

Battery level dominated as the most important feature. Additional important model features were proximity to high level battery scooters, proximity to closest scooter, and average distance to high level battery scooters.

Feature Importance for the Random Forest Classifier

Feature Importance for the Random Forest Classifier

The Trade-off Space

Once I had a working machine learning model for nest classification, I started to build out the application using the Flask web framework written in Python. After spending a few days of writing code for the application and incorporating the trained random forest model, I had enough to test out the basic functionality. I could finally run the application locally to call the Bird API and classify scooter’s into nests in real-time! There was one huge problem, though. It took more than seven minutes to generate the predictions and populate in the application. That just wasn’t going to cut it.

The question remained: will this model deliver in a production grade environment with the goal of making real-time classifications? This is a key trade-off in production grade machine learning applications where on one end of the spectrum we’re optimizing for model performance and on the other end we’re optimizing for low latency application performance.

As I continued to test out the application’s performance, I still faced the challenge of relying on so many APIs for real-time feature generation. Due to rate-limiting constraints and daily request limits across so many external APIs, the current machine learning classifier was not feasible to incorporate into the final application.

Run-Time Compliant Application Model

After going back to the drawing board, I trained a random forest model that relied primarily on scooter-specific features which were generated directly from the Bird API.

Through a process called vectorization, I was able to transform the geolocation distance calculations utilizing NumPy arrays which enabled batch operations on the data without writing any “for” loops. The distance calculations were applied simultaneously on the entire array of geolocations instead of looping through each individual element. The vectorization implementation optimized real-time feature engineering for distance related calculations which improved the application response time by a factor of ten.

Feature Importance for the Run-time Compliant Random Forest Classifier

Feature Importance for the Run-time Compliant Random Forest Classifier

This random forest model generalized well on test-data with an AUC score of 0.95 and an accuracy rate of 91%. The model retained its prediction accuracy compared to the former feature-rich model, but it gained 60x in application performance. This was a necessary trade-off for building a functional application with real-time prediction capabilities.

Geospatial Clustering

Now that I finally had a working machine learning model for classifying nests in a production grade environment, I could generate new nest locations for the non-nest scooters. The goal was to generate geospatial clusters based on the number of non-nest scooters in a given location.

The k-means algorithm is likely the most common clustering algorithm. However, k-means is not an optimal solution for widespread geolocation data because it minimizes variance, not geodetic distance. This can create suboptimal clustering from distortion in distance calculations at latitudes far from the equator. With this in mind, I initially set out to use the DBSCAN algorithm which clusters spatial data based on two parameters: a minimum cluster size and a physical distance from each point. There were a few issues that prevented me from moving forward with the DBSCAN algorithm.

  1. The DBSCAN algorithm does not allow for specifying the number of clusters, which was problematic as the goal was to generate a number of clusters as a function of non-nest scooters.
  2. I was unable to hone in on an optimal physical distance parameter that would dynamically change based on the Bird API data. This led to suboptimal nest locations due to a distortion in how the physical distance point was used in clustering. For example, Santa Monica, where there are ~15,000 scooters, has a higher concentration of scooters in a given area whereas Brookline, MA has a sparser set of scooter locations.

An example of how sparse scooter locations vs. highly concentrated scooter locations for a given Bird API call can create cluster distortion based on a static physical distance parameter in the DBSCAN algorithm. Left:Bird scooters in Brookline, MA. Right:Bird scooters in Santa Monica, CA.

An example of how sparse scooter locations vs. highly concentrated scooter locations for a given Bird API call can create cluster distortion based on a static physical distance parameter in the DBSCAN algorithm. Left:Bird scooters in Brookline, MA. Right:Bird scooters in Santa Monica, CA.

Given the granularity of geolocation scooter data I was working with, geospatial distortion was not an issue and the k-means algorithm would work well for generating clusters. Additionally, the k-means algorithm parameters allowed for dynamically customizing the number of clusters based on the number of non-nest scooters in a given location.

Once clusters were formed with the k-means algorithm, I derived a centroid from all of the observations within a given cluster. In this case, the centroids are the mean latitude and mean longitude for the scooters within a given cluster. The centroids coordinates are then projected as the new nest recommendations.

NestGenerator showcasing non-nest scooters and new nest recommendations utilizing the K-Means algorithm

NestGenerator showcasing non-nest scooters and new nest recommendations utilizing the K-Means algorithm.

NestGenerator Application

After wrapping up the machine learning components, I shifted to building out the remaining functionality of the application. The final iteration of the application is deployed to Heroku’s cloud platform.

In the NestGenerator app, a user specifies a location of their choosing. This will then call the Bird API for scooters within that given location and generate all of the model features for predicting nest classification using the trained random forest model. This forms the foundation for map filtering based on nest classification. In the app, a user has the ability to filter the map based on nest classification.

Drop-Down Map View filtering based on Nest Classification

Drop-Down Map View filtering based on Nest Classification

Nearest Generated Nest

To see the generated nest recommendations, a user selects the “Current Non-Nest Scooters & Predicted Nest Locations” filter which will then populate the application with these nest locations. Based on the user’s specified search location, a table is provided with the proximity of the five closest nests and an address of the Nest location to help inform a Bird charger in their decision-making.

NestGenerator web-layout with nest addresses and proximity to nearest generated nests

NestGenerator web-layout with nest addresses and proximity to nearest generated nests

Conclusion

By accurately predicting nest classification and clustering non-nest scooters, NestGenerator provides an automated recommendation engine for new nest locations. For Bird, this application can help power their nest location generation that runs within their Android and iOS applications. NestGenerator also provides real-time strategic insight for Bird chargers who are enticed to optimize their scooter collection and drop-off route based on scooters and nest locations in their area.

Code

The code for this project can be found on my GitHub

Comments or Questions? Please email me an E-Mail!

 

Sarthak Babbar

Understanding Dropout and implementing it on MNIST dataset

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Over-fitting is a major problem in deep learning and a plethora of techniques have been introduced to prevent it. One of the most effective one is called “dropout”.  Let’s use the analogy of a person going to gym for understanding this. Let’s say the person going to gym mostly uses his dominant arm, say his right arm to pick up weights. After some time, he notices that his dominant arm is developing a large muscle, but not the other arm. So, what can he do? Obviously, he needs to involve both his arms while training. Sometimes he should stop using his right arm, and use the left arm to lift weights and vice versa.

Something like this happens commonly in neural networks. Sometime one part of the network has very large weights and ends up dominating the training. While other part of the network remains weak and does not really play a role in the training. So, what dropout does to solve this problem, is it randomly shuts off some nodes and stop the gradients flowing through it. So, our forward and back propagation happen without those nodes. In that case the rest of the nodes need to pick up the slack and be more active in the training. We define a probability of the nodes getting dropped. For example, P=0.5 means there is a 50% chance a node will be dropped.

Figure 1 demonstrates the dropout technique, taken from the original research paper.

Dropout in a neuronal Net

Our network can never rely on any given node because it can be squashed at any given time. Hence the network is forced to learn redundant representation for everything to make sure at least some of the information remains. Redundant representation leads our network to be more robust. It also acts as ensemble of many networks, since at every epoch random nodes are dropped, each time our network will be different. Ensemble of different networks perform better than a single network since they capture more randomness. Please note, only non-output nodes are dropped.

Let’s, look at the python code to implement dropout in a neural network:

from tensorflow.examples.tutorials.mnist import input_data
mnist = input_data.read_data_sets(".", one_hot=True, reshape=False)

import tensorflow as tf

# Parameters
learning_rate = 0.00001
epochs = 10
batch_size = 128

# Number of samples to calculate validation and accuracy
test_valid_size = 256

# Network Parameters
n_classes = 10  # MNIST total classes (0-9 digits)
dropout = 0.75  # Dropout, probability to keep units


# layers weight & bias
weights = {
    'wc1': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([5, 5, 1, 32])),
    'wc2': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([5, 5, 32, 64])),
    'wd1': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([7*7*64, 1024])),
    'out': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([1024, n_classes]))}

biases = {
    'bc1': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([32])),
    'bc2': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([64])),
    'bd1': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([1024])),
    'out': tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([n_classes]))}

#function that implements Convolution layer
def conv2d(x, W, b, strides=1):
    x = tf.nn.conv2d(x, W, strides=[1, strides, strides, 1], padding='SAME')
    x = tf.nn.bias_add(x, b)
    return tf.nn.relu(x)

#defining a function to implement maxpool layers
def maxpool2d(x, k=2):
    return tf.nn.max_pool(x, ksize=[1, k, k, 1], strides=[1, k, k, 1], padding='SAME')

#Function that defines all the convolution layers.
def conv_net(x, weights, biases, dropout):
    # Layer 1 - 28*28*1 to 14*14*32
    conv1 = conv2d(x, weights['wc1'], biases['bc1'])
    conv1 = maxpool2d(conv1, k=2)

    # Layer 2 - 14*14*32 to 7*7*64
    conv2 = conv2d(conv1, weights['wc2'], biases['bc2'])
    conv2 = maxpool2d(conv2, k=2)


    # Fully connected layer - 7*7*64 to 1024
    fc1 = tf.reshape(conv2, [-1, weights['wd1'].get_shape().as_list()[0]])
    fc1 = tf.add(tf.matmul(fc1, weights['wd1']), biases['bd1'])
    fc1 = tf.nn.relu(fc1)
    fc1 = tf.nn.dropout(fc1, dropout)  # Implementing the dropout layer

    # Output Layer - class prediction - 1024 to 10
    out = tf.add(tf.matmul(fc1, weights['out']), biases['out'])
    return out

# tf Graph input
x = tf.placeholder(tf.float32, [None, 28, 28, 1])
y = tf.placeholder(tf.float32, [None, n_classes])
keep_prob = tf.placeholder(tf.float32) # Keep probability for dropout layers

# Model
logits = conv_net(x, weights, biases, keep_prob)

# Define loss and optimizer
cost = tf.reduce_mean(tf.nn.softmax_cross_entropy_with_logits(logits=logits, labels=y))
optimizer = tf.train.GradientDescentOptimizer(learning_rate=learning_rate).minimize(cost)

# Accuracy
correct_pred = tf.equal(tf.argmax(logits, 1), tf.argmax(y, 1))
accuracy = tf.reduce_mean(tf.cast(correct_pred, tf.float32))

# Initializing the variables
init = tf.global_variables_initializer()

# Launch the graph
with tf.Session() as sess:
    sess.run(init)

    for epoch in range(epochs):
        for batch in range(mnist.train.num_examples//batch_size):
            batch_x, batch_y = mnist.train.next_batch(batch_size)
            sess.run(optimizer, feed_dict={x: batch_x, y: batch_y, keep_prob: dropout})

            # Calculate batch loss and accuracy
            loss = sess.run(cost, feed_dict={x: batch_x, y: batch_y, keep_prob: 1.})
            valid_acc = sess.run(accuracy, feed_dict={
                x: mnist.validation.images[:test_valid_size],
                y: mnist.validation.labels[:test_valid_size],
                keep_prob: 1.}) #we want to keep all nodes while training so keep prob is 1.

            print('Epoch {:>2}, Batch {:>3} - Loss: {:>10.4f} Validation Accuracy: {:.6f}'.format(
                epoch + 1,
                batch + 1,
                loss,
                valid_acc))

    # Calculate Test Accuracy
    test_acc = sess.run(accuracy, feed_dict={
        x: mnist.test.images[:test_valid_size],
        y: mnist.test.labels[:test_valid_size],
        keep_prob: 1.})
    print('Testing Accuracy: {}'.format(test_acc))